After a disastrous wildfire season last year in many parts of the world, concern grows for what this summer will bring in the Northern Hemisphere. Weather conditions are a critical factor, so let’s see what the forecast holds.
The United States was the exception in 2023 with a quiet wildfire season. The 2.7 million acres burned was the least since 1998. The heavy rains and mountain snow in the West during the previous winter reduced fire potential there. The one exception was the devastating wildfire on the Hawaiian island of Maui. On Aug. 8, a wind-driven wildfire roared through the town of Lahaina. With escape nearly impossible in many cases, more than 100 died, making it the deadliest U.S. wildfire in over a century. In addition, more than 2,000 structures were destroyed, with damage estimates topping $5 billion. Moderate to severe drought conditions were affecting the region, and strong downsloping winds were the result of the island being caught between an abnormally strong subtropical high to the north and passing Hurricane Dora to the south.
This year, the U.S. wildfire season has gotten off to a fast start. The 1.7 million acres burned already is well ahead of the 700,000 acre average by this time of year, and the worst since 2017. Much of this occurred with the Smokehouse Creek Fire in the Texas panhandle, which started in late February before finally being controlled in mid-March. Over one million acres were burned, making it the largest recorded wildfire in Texas’s history.
Drought conditions currently exist in the Southwest, especially New Mexico, into the Plains, Rockies, and Pacific Northwest. There is no drought east of the Mississippi River or in California, where El Nino-driven winter storms produced copious precipitation. The forecast for the summer has all of the lower 48 states with above normal temperatures, with the possible exception of the northern Plains. Rainfall is forecast to be below normal from the Plains into the Rockies and the Pacific Northwest, with the rest of the West being seasonably dry.
The East should be wet, possibly due to the predicted active hurricane season. Alaska should see normal temperatures and wet conditions. The Hawaiian Islands are forecast to be warm and dry. Drought conditions will persist in the Rockies and southern High Plains, as well as in the Hawaiian Islands.
Areas now in — or forecast to develop — drought conditions will also have an “above normal wildland fire potential” this summer. California will see a “below normal” risk until late in the summer, as seasonal dryness has an effect. All of Hawaii has an “above normal” wildfire potential this summer.
In stark contrast to the U.S., Canada had its worst wildfire season ever recorded in 2023. In late June, with half of the typical fire season to go, the record for area burned (7.6 million hectares/18.8 million acres) was already broken. By the end of the fire season, an incredible 18.4 million hectares (45.4 million acres) had been burned nationwide.
Wildfires occurred throughout the country, from the West Coast to the Atlantic provinces, and even into the Northwest Territories beyond the Arctic Circle. The wildfire problems had been expected in the Prairie provinces, where drought conditions were ongoing, but the eastern part of the country had been wet. This shows how quickly conditions can change. Prevailing winds at times drove smoke from the wildfires into the southern U.S. and even across the Atlantic into Western Europe.
Going into this wildfire season, drought conditions continue from interior British Columbia eastward through the Prairie Provinces. Firefighters in western Canada have already begun battling the first major wildfires of the year, with residents in Fort Nelson in northeastern British Columbia being evacuated and those in Fort McMurrary, Alberta, on evacuation alert.
The forecast for the summer is for almost all of Canada to have above normal temperatures. Although above average precipitation is forecast for parts of the west, this can also mean more lightning-producing thunderstorms. Predicted fire severity in the west remains seasonally high through July. In August, the severity index skews well above normal there. Eastern Canada is forecast to have minimal wildfire risk this summer.
As was forecast last year, it was a hot, dry summer in Europe, with extreme heat waves producing very dangerous wildfire conditions. As a result, Europe saw one of its worst wildfire seasons, with over a half million hectares (over 1 million acres) burned. The Mediterranean region was most affected with Greece being particularly hard-hit. A fire near Alexandroupoli was the largest single fire ever recorded in the E.U.
The latest reports indicate that nearly 20 percent of the E.U. (along with the United Kingdom) is in drought warning conditions. The drought area is mainly along the Mediterranean coast to the west, but expands inland towards the east and the Black Sea, and includes most of Greece. The forecast is not encouraging: above normal temperatures are predicted throughout all of Europe this summer. The few wet areas early in the summer give way to below normal rainfall in most areas by August.
In Australia, the stretch of three relatively quiet fire seasons — thanks to La Nina rains — came to an abrupt end. El Nino-induced drought conditions and heavy vegetation growth during the wet years set the stage as the 2023-24 fire season started early in the spring and got progressively worse in the summer. Heat waves accompanied by strong winds fueled excessive fire intensities and rapid spread rates. A predicted return to wetter La Nina conditions hopefully will dampen fire activity over the next Southern Hemisphere summer.
